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The scenarios being discussed in Ankara

The outcome of the results put politics into a stiff test.



While talking about coalition calculations, early election arguments, minority government… Ankara returned to the old days.



We are making calculations which we haven't done since November 3, 2002.



Talks of coalition formulas are flowing in the parties' headquarters, as well as early election discussions.



Following the June 7th elections, Turkey stepped into a new period.



I'd like to reflect a tendency from the Presidency circles.



In order for Turkey not to fall into political instability, it is desired that the AK Party drives the coalition formulas.



It's being underlined that AK Party, which came in first in the election and has been administering the country alone for the past 13 years, has the responsibility not to leave the country without a government.



Thus, it's being thought that it's not right to make an opposition choice or go for another election before forcing coalition government formulas.



This is my impression.



As for the AK Party front;



They will be acting with the responsibility of being the party that came in first in the elections.



They will be making an effort to avoid leaving Turkey without a government.



Meanwhile, AK Party's renewal process will be started.



Throughout this week, the Prime Minister will be meeting with the Ministers and MYK (Central Executive Committee) members one by one. He will come together with some name from the three periods.



As the chairman of AK Party, which came in first in the elections, Davutoğlu is required to lead this process. Davutoğlu will be knocking on the doors of everyone in this process.



There are three options in front of AK Party.



1-The first one of them is the coalition government. Since the voter-bases are close to each other, the first one that pops in our minds is MHP.



On the election night, MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli kept his party out of the coalition options and positioned themselves as the “main opposition”. However, it's known that there is an MHP crowd that has been away from the rulership for the past 13 years. There is no contact between the two parties yet. As a matter of fact, the arguments over “will there be a coalition with MHP” are not cleared yet; however, there are talks about making a gesture to an MHP member during the President of the Assembly selections. For example, there are idea exercises being held like; whether the coalition doors will be slightly opened if the Presidency of the Assembly is given to MHP member Meral Akşener.



2-Meanwhile, there is the option of the “Grand coalition” side “great coalition” which is persistently brought up. The first one is the government model of AK Party and CHP's coalition. Coalition with CHP is a formula which is mostly mentioned by the circles outside AK Party.



After May 27, there were two governments with broad participations that were established under the Presidency of İsmet İnönü. Also, after the 1991 elections, Süleyman Demirel and Erdal İnönü actualized this by bringing DYP and SHP together. Both the attempts in the İnönü and Demirel periods caused rightist and leftist central parties to collapse and the parties on the sides to gradually grow bigger and become central parties.



3-There is also the possibility of a Minority government that AK Party can establish alone. Compared to the “great coalition”, it's a stronger option. In 1979, it had been established by Demirel, and in 1999 by Ecevit. It's not certain whether AK Party will have such an opportunity. As a matter of fact, it seems a little difficult. However, the fact that the minority government depends on the supporting party is making it difficult to take action.



As for the election government; after all the doors are knocked on, government formulas are forced and if a chaos possibility still occurs, then the decision of holding early elections will be made. Meanwhile, AK Party will turn to the nation and say; “Oh people! As you've seen, I've tried all the ways to establish a government; however, I've been unsuccessful. In this case, in order not to drag the country into political instability, I'm delivering the deposit to its original owner. Seize your own fate”. When the early election decision is taken, the nation needs to be convinced of it also. If the nation is not convinced, then they might say; “By making you the first in the elections, I've given you a role. Either get someone on your side, or take their support, but one way or the other, administer the country. You've made the decision of early elections without forcing these channels”.



Thus, first all the options related with the government models should be consumed.



As for the opposition front;



Not the opposition parties, but the circles outside them are making a great effort to have a coalition government formed without AK Party.



On the opposition front, there is an emphasis laid on the models where the leaders are included and the models where the leaders are discluded.



The CHP – MHP coalition with the support of HDP from the outside is coming first.



Due to Devlet Bahçeli's attitude, it's unclear to whether there will be progress; however, this is what's desired.



Another one is the model that is similar to the technocrats' government that resembles the March 12 process. A government, under the lead of Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu or İlhan Kesici, and formed of CHP, MHP and HDP parliamentarians. The establishment and progress of a government model without leaders seems difficult.



No single rulership came out of the June 7 elections. Since the first night of the elections, there has been talk about “the parties against AK Party should form a coalition; let AK Party be the opposition for a while”. One of the doyens of politics, Bülent Arınç, protected this thesis. If the senior mind manages to unite the opposition around the government model, then there will be a government without AK Party.



However, if all these pursuits do not bear results, then there will be only one way; heading to early elections in order not to drag the country to instability. By the way, this is the formula of pulling the election threshold down to 7 or 5 and going for early elections in November.



I'm of the opinion that the coalition government pursuits will be forced till the last moment. I know that we don't have the “no single rulership came out, let's consult the nation again” kind of attitude in our political traditions. The pursuits directed at this had started since the first night of the elections.



AK Party is required to protect its unity and solidarity during this process. There is not even a single display of a crack. Chaos in the AK Party might cost the country dearly.



Thus, it's time for unity.



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